- Tapa blanda: 336 páginas
- Editor: Profile Books; Edición: Main (5 de junio de 2014)
- Idioma: Inglés
- ISBN-10: 9781846686214
- ISBN-13: 978-1846686214
- ASIN: 1846686210
- Valoración media de los clientes: Sé el primero en opinar sobre este producto
Clasificación en los más vendidos de Amazon:
nº322.985 en Libros en idiomas extranjeros (Ver el Top 100 en Libros en idiomas extranjeros)
- n.° 822 en Estadística y probabilidad (Libros en idiomas extranjeros)
- n.° 1126 en Estadística y probabilidad (Libros)
- n.° 2693 en Libros universitarios de matemáticas
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The Norm Chronicles: Stories and numbers about danger (Inglés) Tapa blanda – 5 jun 2014
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Descripción del producto
Fascinating (Daily Mail 2013-06-14)
Helping people make sense of the barrage of confusing (and often misrepresented) statistics that riddle every day is a noble goal. (Economist 2013-06-22)
A fast-paced, whizz-bang style (The Times 2013-06-08)
Witty and illuminating, essential reading for anyone wanting to know whether they should try skydiving, or accept that third glass of wine (Financial Times 2013-07-13)
Accessible yet deep, The Norm Chronicles explains how statistical regularities and irregularities are central to every aspect of our lives. If Jonathan Coe and Gerd Gigerenzer were to collaborate on a sardonic self-help book, this is what it might look like. (Andrew Gelman, Professor of Statistics and Political Science, Columbia University)
Reseña del editor
Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike?
Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.Ver Descripción del producto
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The authors explore the evaluation and communication of risk through fictional characters: Norm, Prudence and the Kelvins and their journey's through life. Norm is the average man who uses reason and probability/statistics to traverse the challenges of life. Prudence is extremely risk averse and views the world through a lens of fear. The Kelvins are the risk-takers, the daredevils. Each chapter is themed on an important part of everyday life associated with risk. The chapter begins with a vignette in the lives of the characters, The vignette is followed by a clear, extremely interesting and sometimes provocative look at the data.
This book is brave in the scope of issues it covers and its honest discussion of the tension between our fast and slow thinking aspects of our brains (to use Kahneman's characterization). Topics such as transport, crime, sex, , hralthcare, unemployment, aging and death. The issues of framing, availability bias, our propensity to over and under-estimate risks are covered well.
The complex philosophical issues of what is probability, and do humans act rationally and the complexity of decision making are discussed. The authors arrive at a compassionate pragmatic view that probability is a tool that is our best bet for an event based on the available information that can be updated with new information. A tool that we can use to deal with uncertainty. The authors demonstrates a number of complex tools in understandable methods: the power of graphically visualizing data, the importance of realizing the expected values versus observed (example of Poisson model of murder rates), and the limitations our predictions.
I admit that I was not as much interested in the fictional narrative as the discussion of the data and its interpretation and limitation., This is an important, brave, at times humorous and clearly written book that should help us all think more clearly and risk and consequences.
There are 27 short chapters, mostly on specific sources of risk (Accidents, Drugs, Transportation, Lifestyle, Crime, Surgery, ...) A recurring theme is quantitative comparisons of different risks via the concepts of Micromorts and Microlives. Mentioned in passing are many psychological factors (natural vs human-made risks, availability heuristic and confirmation bias, zero-risk bias, cultural theory of risk, the influence of media, ...) but these are not given the heavy emphasis as in Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Risks arise from activities we want, or de facto need, to do, and the book emphasizes that there are no "right answers" to the balance between risk and reward. In other words it avoids being judgmental, either in the "your intuition is wrong" sense of Kahneman, or in the "risks in the medical and financial world are deliberately obfuscated by self-serving professionals" sense of Gigerenzer's Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, instead implicitly inviting readers to judge for themselves. Reading the non-judgmental Drugs chapter would benefit anyone expressing opinions on that issue. And a dramatic graphic (figure 6) shows the complete disconnect between the actual magnitude of risks and the extent of their media exposure.
My only mildly critical comments concern matters the authors are well aware of. The examples and data are mostly British, as in the literary style of fiction. It focuses on risks of death, rather than injuries or quality of life issues, for the usual reason that we have much clearer data on deaths, but this inevitably skews the choice of topics. Finally, the authors know perfectly well that the major serious risks to everyman Norm are in fact the smoking/alcohol/diet/exercise factors in Chapter 17; so it is ironic that, echoing the media disconnect mentioned above, the book devotes only 1 of 27 chapters to these factors.
Still, the book is not without a few boo-boos. On page 117, the authors state that "The prosecution has been caricatured in some quarters as typical of a country that tortured Galileo, typical of a public demand for fortune-telling from necessarily uncertain scientists." But Galileo was never tortured. Also the Index is wanting (Galileo, for example is not only misrepresented, but he’s indicia non gratis (sorry for my twisted Latin).
There are all sorts of goodies in this book eg
Going through the airport scanner results in 0.0001 milliSieverts (equivalent of eating one large banana)
And flying from London to New York results in 0.07 milliSieverts (equivalent of eating 700 large bananas)
It is not at all text book like but still very informative on a variety of topics including fatal illness, crime, accidents, sports etc