- Tapa dura: 784 páginas
- Editor: Princeton University Press (12 de enero de 2016)
- Colección: The Princeton Economic History of the Western World
- Idioma: Inglés
- ISBN-10: 0691147728
- ISBN-13: 978-0691147727
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The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World) (Inglés) Tapa dura – 12 ene 2016
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Winner of the 2017 Excellence in Financial Journalism Book Award, New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants Winner of the 2017 PROSE Award in U.S. History, Association of American Publishers A New York Times Bestseller One of Bloomberg View's "Five Books to Change Conservatives' Minds," chosen by Cass Sunstein #36 on Bloomberg's "50 Most Influential" List One of Bloomberg's Best Books of 2016 One of Financial Times (FT.com) Best Economics Books of 2016 One of The Economist's Economics and Business Books of the Year 2016 One of the Strategy+Business Best Business Books 2016 in Economy One of Kirkus Reviews Best Nonfiction Books of 2016 in History One of Bloomberg View's Great History Books of 2016 One of The New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2016 One of The Wall Street Journal's "The 20 Books That Defined Our Year" 2016 One of Foreign Affairs' Editors' Picks 2016 One of the Washington Post's Best Economics Books 2016 Shortlisted for the 2016 Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award One of The NewYorker.com Page-Turner blog's "The Books We Loved in 2016" Longlisted for the 2016 Cundill Prize in Historical Literature, McGill University "The Rise and Fall of American Growth... is the Thomas Piketty-esque economic must read of the year."--Rana Foroohar, Time "This is a book well worth reading--a magisterial combination of deep technological history, vivid portraits of daily life over the past six generations and careful economic analysis... [The Rise and Fall of American Growth] will challenge your views about the future; [and] it will definitely transform how you see the past."--Paul Krugman, New York Times Book Review "[An] authoritative examination of innovation through the ages."--Neil Irwin, New York Times "Robert Gordon has written a magnificent book on the economic history of the United States over the last one and a half centuries... The book is without peer in providing a statistical analysis of the uneven pace of growth and technological change, in describing the technologies that led to the remarkable progress during the special century, and in concluding with a provocative hypothesis that the future is unlikely to bring anything approaching the economic gains of the earlier period... If you want to understand our history and the economic dilemmas faced by the nation today, you can spend many a fruitful hour reading Gordon's landmark study."--William D. Nordhaus, New York Review of Books "Mr. Gordon uses exhaustive historic data to buttress his thesis."--Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal "[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] is full of wonder for the miraculous things that America has accomplished."--Edward Glaeser, Wall Street Journal "A masterful study to be read and reread by anyone interested in today's political economy."--Kirkus "Normally, these kinds of big-think books end with a whimper, as the author totally fails to identify solutions to the problem he is writing about. But Gordon's conclusion offers some admirably definitive policy advice."--Matthew Yglesias, Vox "Magnificent... Gordon presents his case... with great style and panache, supporting his argument with vivid examples as well as econometric data... Even if history changes direction... this book will survive as a superb reconstruction of material life in America in the heyday of industrial capitalism."--Economist "Every presidential candidate should be asked what policies he or she would offer to increase the pace of U.S. productivity growth and to narrow the widening gap between winners and losers in the economy. Bob Gordon's list is a good place to start."--David Wessel, WSJ.com's Think Tank blog "[W]hat may be the year's most important book on economics has already been published... What Gordon has provided is not a rejection of technology but a sobering reminder of its limits."--Robert Samuelson, Washington Post "Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is an extraordinary work of economic scholarship... Moreover, this is one of the rare economics books that is on the one hand deeply analytical ... And on the other a pleasure to read... [A] landmark work."--Lawrence Summers, Prospect "Ambitious... The hefty tome, minutely detailed yet dauntingly broad in scope, offers a lively portrayal of the evolution of American living standards since the Civil War."--Eduardo Porter, New York Times "Two years ago a huge book on economics took the world by storm. Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century ... became a surprise bestseller... Robert Gordon's tome on American economic growth stretches to 768 pages and its central message is arguably more important."--David Smith, Sunday Times "A landmark new book."--Gavin Kelly, The Guardian "Looking ahead, judging presidents by policies rather than outcomes may be all the more important. In a new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the economist Robert Gordon argues that we are in the midst of an era of meager technological change. Yes, we now have smartphones and Twitter, but previous generations introduced electric lighting, indoor plumbing and the internal combustion engine. In Mr. Gordon's view, technological change is just not what it used to be, and we had better get used to slower growth in productivity and incomes."--N. Gregory Mankiw, New York Times "The Rise and Fall of American Growth is likely to be the most interesting and important economics book of the year. It provides a splendid analytic take on the potency of past economic growth, which transformed the world from the end of the nineteenth century onward... Gordon's book serves as a powerful reminder that the U.S. economy really has gone through a protracted slowdown and that this decline has been caused by the stagnation in technological progress."--Tyler Cowen, Foreign Affairs "[A]n important new book."--Martin Ford, Huffington Post "[A] lightning bolt of a new book."--Harold Meyerson, The American Prospect "So powerful and intriguing are the facts and arguments marshaled by Gordon that even informed critics who think he is wrong recommend that readers plow through his The Rise and Fall of American Growth, with its 60 graphics and 64 tables spread over more than 700 pages. You don't need to be an economist to appreciate or understand the book. His thesis is straightforward."--David Cay Johnston, Al Jazeera America.com "What is novel about Gordon's approach to this problem is that he doesn't try to find political causes for our economic woes... [E]xhaustive and sweeping in scope, and novel in its thinking about growth."--Chris Matthews, Fortune.com "[A] fascinating new book."--Jeffrey Sachs, Boston Globe "One of the most important books of recent years... Powerful and impressive."--Cass R. Sunstein, Bloomberg View "This is a tremendous, sobering piece of research, which does a lot to explain the febrile, nervous state of modern Western democracies."--Marcus Tanner, The Independent "A new book by economist Robert Gordon--The Rise and Fall of American Growth--is causing quite a stir."--City A.M. "If he's right, and one links this with growing income inequality, our would-be leaders will have difficulty in making the case for achieving the American dream through steady incremental progress achieved through collaboration and political compromise."--Michael Hoffmann, Desert Sun "Robert Gordon's new book on productivity in the U.S. economy, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, is masterful... Gordon skillfully lays out myriad information about the history and trends of productivity. One can learn a great deal."--Edward Lotterman, St. Paul Pioneer Press "[I]mpressive."--Peter Martin, Sydney Morning Herald "In his unsettling new book, Gordon, who teaches at Northwestern, weighs in on the role of technology in the U.S. over the past century-and-a-half. He does so forcefully, so forcefully, in fact, as to wipe the smiles off the faces of most techno-optimists, myself included."--Peter A. Coclanis, Charlotte Observer "[A] thoughtful new book."--David D. Haynes, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel "[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] is this year's equivalent to Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century: an essential read for all economists, who are unanimously floored by its boldness and scope even if they don't agree with its conclusions."--Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine "Gordon makes a compelling case for why the era of fast growth in America ended around 1970 and will not return in the foreseeable future, if ever."--Dick Meyer, DecodeDC "Gordon argues that we are not going to get another surge soon and that there are several headwinds that are going to work against faster growth, including income inequality, education as a differentiator and not an equalizer, the debt overhang, and demography."--John Mason, TheStreet.com "[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] challenges every political claim, and every pundit's remedy, regarding how to get the lackluster American economy to boom again in the decades ahead, as it once did a half-century or more ago... [The book] represents the culmination of Gordon's many years of investigation into this key economic question of our age, namely: 'Why is it that the American economy has never been able to return to the happy boom years of our grandparents' time?' Why is it that, decade after decade, administration after administration, annualized productivity growth has only been about one-half to one-third that of the age of Truman and Eisenhower?"--Paul Kennedy, Tribune Content Agency "[M]asterful... Gordon skillfully lays out information about the history and trends of productivity. One can learn a great deal... The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a rare example of a work with solid economics that can be understood, and enjoyed, by nearly any lay person."--Ed Lotterman, Idaho Statesman "As an economic historian, Gordon is beyond reproach."--Edward Luce, Financial Times "Provocative."--Associated Press "The Rise and Fall of American Growth, is a deep dive into the past with an eye to the future... [The book] is part of a fascinating debate about future prospects for the American economy."--Knowledge@Wharton "[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] has set the wonky world of economics aflame."--Ryan Craig, TechCrunch "Magisterial."--John Kay, Financial Times "[A] contentious new book."--Margaret Wente, The Globe & Mail "[A] fabulous new book... [I]mpressive."--Dr. Mike Walden, Morganton News Herald "Northwestern Bob Gordon's new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, offers a deeper explanation for the underlying mechanics behind slowed economic growth."--Jon Hartley, Forbes.com "So much of what the presidential candidates and the American people want to accomplish over the next four years and beyond depends on the U.S. economy growing faster, and more inclusively, than it has in recent years. This year's hot economics book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, by one of America's most distinguished macroeconomists, Robert Gordon, casts a pall on whether this is possible, arguing that the U.S. had a golden century of increasing innovation from roughly 1870 to 1970, but this was unique."--Robert Litan, Fortune.com "Gordon's book offers the definitive account of how the many technological innovations between 1870 and 1940 dramatically improved life in the United States."--Richard A. Epstein, Hoover Institution's Defining Ideas blog "[M]agiserial... The Northwestern University professor lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the American way of life was largely a one-time deal."--Matt Phillips, Quartz "Robert Gordon's new book The Rise and Fall of American Growth has taken the economics world by storm this winter."--Myles Udland, Business Insider "[M]assive."--Ben Casselman, FiveThirty Eight "[G]roundbreaking."--Zeeshan Aleem, Mic "With a painstaking--and fascinating--historical analysis of American productivity, [Gordon] argues that the innovations of today pale in comparison to earlier in our history and that we might actually be entering a period of prolonged stagnation. He may very well be right."--Greg Satell, Forbes.com "[P]rovocative."--Barrie McKenna, The Globe & Mail "[I]nfluential."--Martin Neil Baily, Fortune.com "[A] stimulating book."--George Will, Washington Post "Compulsive reading."--Andrew Hilton, Financial World "Gordon is not an alarmist, far from it. His is a sober voice of concern, of caution, which needs to be heard by those in the helm in America. And a fascinating lesson for ambitious and growing countries like India."--Dr R Balashankar, Sunday Guardian "[A] fascinating convergence of green and mainstream thought."--Tom Horton, Chesapeake Bay Journal "[T]his panoramic book makes good reading."--Shane Greenstein, Harvard Magazine "The book's great contribution is the tapestry it weaves of all the innovations that changed most Americans' lives beyond recognition in the century from 1870 to 1970."--Martin Sandbu, Financial Times "The Rise and Fall of American Growth is unquestionably an important book that raises fundamental questions about the United States' economy and society."--New Criterion "[A] masterpiece."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times "[An] impressive book... Gordon's book provides sufficient ammunition to show the colossal problems facing capitalism."--Socialism Today "Rich with detailed information, meticulous observations, and even anecdotes and stories ... a fascinating read."--Ricardo F. Levi, Corriere della Sera "The Rise and Fall of American Growth is essential reading for anyone interested in economics."--Choice "In an important new book, economist Robert Gordon makes the case for pessimism. He believes that technologies like smartphones, robots, and artificial intelligence aren't going to have the kind of big impact on the economy that earlier inventions--like the internal combustion engine and electricity--did."--Timothy B. Lee, Vox "Robert Gordon has written an engaging economic-based history of America... Gordon is to be commended for helping to stimulate a national debate on the current low level of economic productivity."--Allan Hauer, Innovation: The Journal of Technology & Commercialization "If you want to see how far we have come and how tough life was a century and a half ago, read Gordon's book."--David R. Henderson, Regulation "A fantastic read."--Bill Gates, GatesNotes "The book is well written, and one can only be in awe of Gordon's mastery of the factual history of the American standard of living."--Robert A. Margo, EH.net "Monumental."--John Cassidy, NewYorker.com "Zeitgeist-defining."--Myles Udland, Business Insider "[A] magisterial treatise."--Nick Gillespie, Reason.com "[A]n essential read for anyone interested not only in US economic history but also American economic prospects ... a tremendous achievement."--Diane Coyle, Enlightened Economist "A comprehensive history of American economic growth."--Eric Rauchway, American Prospect "Professor Robert J. Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or history."--Wendell Cox, New Geography "A wonderful new book."--Jeff Sachs, Boston Globe "The most important economics book of 2016."--Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune "This spectacular history traces the rise and the plateau of the American economy since industrialization."--Jay Weiser, Weekly Standard "[A] landmark book... An impressive history of how the American people progressed in their standards of living and productivity in the 'golden century' of 1870-1970."--Stephen M. Millett, Strategy & Leadership "Gordon's encyclopedic The Rise and Fall of American Growth, a new history of modern U.S. economic life, [is] perhaps the best yet written."--Jonathan Levy, Dissent "One of our greatest economic historians... Gordon's exhaustive research program ... has knocked me back on my intellectual heels."--J. Bradford DeLong, Strategy + Business "This is the most important book on economics in many years."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times "Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth set out a thesis of technological diminishing returns that does much to explain an age of economic pessimism."--Lorien Kite, Financial Times "In the course of Gordon's book, a vivid picture of everyday life as our parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents lived it emerges... What lingers in my mind, alongside these ideas, is a new, weightier sense of the past, and of what the people who lived in it ate, touched, heard, saw, and did. Reading The Rise and Fall of American Growth, I thought a lot about my grandparents. Gordon's book has made their lives more real to me."--Joshua Rothman, NewYorker.com's Page-Turner blog "Magisterial... While the book has gotten attention because of its bold projection of slow growth in the future, this is actually just one small element of a magnificent and detailed presentation of how our economy has changed since 1870. Most people don't fully appreciate what life was like in the past and Gordon gives a blow-by-blow description of how people lived in America from 1870 on. In addition, he carefully explains how each new innovation was created and how its adoption changed people's lives."--Stephen Rose, Democracy: A Journal of Ideas "Gordon constructs a strong case using conventional economic principles and exacting data measurement."--Don Pittis, CBC News "Gordon's genius is to weave together economic history with the story of the technology, know-how, politic, demographics and medicine that made the astonishing progress of the US perhaps the most remarkable ever."--Sean O'Grady, The Independent "The Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert Gordon, is that rarest thing: a work of densely researched macroeconomics that is compulsively readable."--Bill Morris, The Millions
Reseña del editor
In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.Ver Descripción del producto
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To him much of this improvement is due to what he calls the second industrial revolution which was brought into being by the widespread adoption of electricity and the internal combustion engine. along with indoor plumbing remade the economy. In a way his book is a paean to industrial capitalism whose innovations brought about this revolution. Further, although it is hard to believe today, the introduction of the automobile in the early 1900s was the clean technology of its day. Simply put the major cities of the country were knee deep in horse poop and horse piss that local residents struggled to avoid. They were literally swimming in pollution.
Compare this to the third industrial revolution we are experience today involving information technology, computers and communications. Sure those technologies have improved our lives, but how do they compare to indoor plumbing and electric lights. Gordon demonstrates through a careful analysis of the data that the information revolution peaked from 1996-2004 and has since slowed down. Specifically Moore’s Law which states computer chip capacity doubles every 18-24 months which held from the late 1960s to the early 2000s broke down in the past decade to a pace of doubling every four to six years.
Going forward Gordon is a “techno-pessimist.” He views the 1870-1970 period as a one off event. The recent slowdown in productivity and economic growth certainly supports his view. Whether he is right, or not, only time will tell. Where I would disagree with Gordon is that he labels the rise of income inequality as an impediment to growth. To me that is a stretch because during his golden age of 1870-1940 there were two distinct periods of high and rising income inequality. The first was the gilded age of 1895-1910 and second was the roaring twenties. During those two time periods the standard of living for the average American grew rapidly and it is hard to see in the data that it was an impediment to growth especially when Gordon admits the official data grossly understated overall economic growth.
I know that this review has hardly done justice to Gordon’s magisterial work. I highly recommend it for those interested in how our lives came to be.
Some of the reading can be a little tedious and repetitive, as one by one, the author goes over all the significant factors and inventions which contributed to a huge i ncrease in US incomes since the beginning of the 20th century, and created the worlds biggest economy. Nonetheless, it really is necessary to read every chapter and page because it prepares one to understand better the book's main thesis, which is repeated over and over, but explained more fully in economic terms in the last chapters. All policymakers will have to contend with the conclusions of this work, especially the new government which vows to "make America great again". Robert Gordon's book shows that with the right policies such a goal is achievable in the economic ( and social ) sphere, but the task will not be easy.
Gordon sees 2 broad periods. First, there was a revolutionary period in which the internal combustion engine and the domestication of electricity fundamentally transformed the lives of the vast majority of the North American population with an unprecedented array of basic innovations, such as the telephone and the provision of clean water. This lasted from 1870 to 1940. Second, he describes what he calls the evolutionary period up to present, where most of the basic innovations are extended in the their applications and growth begins to slow, particularly from about 1970. It will be very hard, he concludes, for us to return to the rapid growth we have come to expect, in large part because you cannot invent the same things twice, i.e. we are reaching a natural equilibrium that will be hard to improve upon.
According to Gordon, for most, the world of 1870 - even with the steam engine that served as the basis for the first industrial revolution - was much as it had been since antiquity. Most cities were relatively small, the overwhelming majority (70% of the population) lived on farms where their lives were nothing but toil and drudgery, cut off from even their neighbors for long periods, often in darkness, and dangerously unsanitary. One in 5 children died in infancy, life expectancy was under 40, and you essentially worked until you died or were physically unable to continue. The only contact with the outside were the church, certain communal events, and the local store and tradesmen; otherwise, they stuck to the household for workdays of approximately 14 hours, 6 or 7 days a week in the growing season. Though I knew many of these things, Gordon's exposition of them is so brilliant that I felt it in a new way and saw them as a gestalt for the first time.
Then came the inventions. They included the internal combustion engine (i.e. cars to replace horses), electrification (bringing light, appliances, power tools, refrigeration, and water pumps), and the telephone. Gradually, the households became networked, connected to the wider world by transportation, communication, etc. With clean water and proper sewage disposal, a major source of contagion disappeared, just at the time that the germ theory of disease brought new standards for cleanliness and access to more effective medicines. Infant mortality dropped precipitously, the economy began to modernize itself as more effective markets grew (among many things, eliminating the local-store monopoly as prices began to become standardized and without haggling), and consumer goods flooded into homes, increasing choice and convenience by orders of magnitude.
Of great interest, particularly for those interested in economics, Gordon questions many basic notions, such as the utility and accuracy of the growth of the GDP as a measure of well being. The introduction of automobiles, for example, phased out horses and all their associated ills (manure and urine in the streets), which improved sanitation, ease of access to transport, even the smell, all of which are not quite included in the GDP. The comfort that air conditioning brought was similar. There are scores of additional theoretical mini-essays like this, which are both useful and simply fun to read (at least for me, a longtime student of economics). Indeed, every page had some interesting observation or interpretation that got me to think.
By 1940, once these innovations had reached most of the population, the US economy had grown completely out of recognition to the farmer of 1870. Though there was great momentum that would propel the economy to grow at full employment, Gordon emphasizes the biggest improvements had been done - what followed was largely derivative, e.g. the building of the highway system for cars, the development of big box stores, the introduction of air travel, improvements in engine efficiency, etc. - and could not be repeated. Hence, as the economy matured, growth was destined to slow and not much could be done to change that. The oil shocks of the 1970s continued to slow things down as did some "excessive" regulation, but these are marginal issues.
Gordon's treatment of the so-called 3rd industrial revolution, the development information and communication technologies (ICT), is particularly incisive. He argues that ICT led to strong growth for a limited period (1996 to 2005 or so), but were not nearly as revolutionary as had been portrayed. What it generated included a number of efficiencies and entertainment possibilities, but did not fundamentally transform the economy. I must say, I agree - we love our devices, but most of our uses of them are for trivial reasons.
Finally, Gordon looks to the future. He sees nothing that will have the impact of the original triad of inventions. Moreover, he predicts that while robotics and artificial intelligence will eliminate some jobs, other jobs will emerge symbiotically - as they always have. If this outlook is perhaps a bit too sanguine, he sees nothing that will return us to a long period of growth above 3% that we saw in the golden century.
I found his policy suggestions rather disappointing, essentially macroeconomic tweaking with tax incentives and the like. Completely absent was any prescription or speculation on ways that we might change our attitudes towards our societies, e.g. to adopt a philosophy of plenitude (satisfaction in having enough rather than always more and more). That would require a different book, I suppose.
To be clear, the book is about growth in productivity and in particular economies of scope (technologies that enable fundamental transformations and result in self-reinforcing virtuous circles of economic development). It is not about the business cycle, though the Great Depression is treated at length and does not even mention speculative bubbles, such as the real estate boom that fueled the "Reagan Revolution". I would have liked more on this with the same depth of context, but will have to look elsewhere. Interestingly, his analysis goes a long way to explaining the Asian economic miracle, i.e. those national economies are developing along similar lines to that which the US did and the growth rates of their economies will also slow down as they mature - there is nothing magical about it. (Having spent a decade worrying about Japan taking over the world economy, I now do not fret much about the Chinese ever doing so. They are following a predictable trajectory, as explained by Gordon.)
It may sound perverse, but I brought this book on vacation. I was hoping to find an absorbing analysis for many hours in transit and late evenings in sparse hotel room and it was absolutely perfect in this respect. As an intimate dialogue with a great mind, there is not a boring page in the book and I am still thinking through the ideas. It is dense, challenging, and beautifully written, a genuine masterpiece of popular, up to date economic history. One of the best books I have read in a decade.
I give this book my highest and most enthusiastic recommendation.